Hypothetical risk illustration
Each year repeats the incomplete Aug 27, 2025–Aug 18, 2026 model. Five copies are not five years of observed results. Missing periods are excluded, not zero-filled. Not a forecast, live/paper fills or verified released-product parity.
ORB · Whole MNQ sizing · 6-tick costs
- Ending hypothetical balance
- $87,676.00
- Net change after modeled trade costs
- $77,676.00
- Maximum closed-trade drawdown
- $12,484.00 / 18.5635%
- Longest consecutive losing trades
- 5
- Executed / skipped source trades
- 905 / 0
- Executed-trade net win rate
- 48.62%
Closed-trade drawdown uses every modeled close, separately from day-close drawdown ($12,484.00). New trades stop at equity depletion. Displayed equity has a zero floor; largest negative modeled shortfall retained: $0.00.
Year-by-year repeated source
| Copy | Opening | Ending | Net change | Executed / skipped | Drawdown to date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $10,000.00 | $14,560.50 | $4,560.50 | 181 / 0 | 11.7998% |
| 2 | $14,560.50 | $22,272.00 | $7,711.50 | 181 / 0 | 17.3503% |
| 3 | $22,272.00 | $34,216.00 | $11,944.00 | 181 / 0 | 17.3503% |
| 4 | $34,216.00 | $54,545.50 | $20,329.50 | 181 / 0 | 18.1515% |
| 5 | $54,545.50 | $87,676.00 | $33,130.50 | 181 / 0 | 18.5635% |
Excluded: real platform, data and subscription costs; taxes, financing, withdrawals and deposits; brokerage margin, liquidity, capacity, market impact, fill feasibility, future regime changes and unobserved losses. This is not executable trading readiness. Actual losses can exceed planned risk.
Exact arithmetic and provenance
Missing periods include Apr 1–24, 2026. This is a mechanical illustration, not a probability estimate. Two percent is planned risk per trade, never an assumed daily return; gains and losses both compound.
Selected cost: 6 ticks, used once in net outcomes and included in the risk denominator. This is an analytical allowance, not a verified broker fee quote. MNQ is modeled at $0.50 per tick using NQ reference-price outcomes; MNQ fills are unverified.
All trades on a source session use its opening equity. Signed outcomes apply sequentially; the next session uses updated closing equity. No same-day resizing. Maximum source trades per session: 1; same-day exits verified by the supplied model. Entry/exit timestamps are absent, so intraday position overlap is unverified. Risk per trade is not a total portfolio cap. ORB and OF are separate, never a combined portfolio.
Risk budget = session-opening equity × risk fraction. Whole MNQ quantity = floor(budget / ((stop ticks + 6) × $0.50)); net P&L = quantity × (gross ticks − 6) × $0.50. Fractional net P&L = budget × (gross ticks − 6) / (stop ticks + 6). Source order and stops are unchanged.
Historical ORB MATRIX_SIGNAL_NT_R1 with 5-minute opening range, flow confirmation and 1.5R target. This calculation does not establish parity with the current shipped download.
Source: orb_trade_ledger.csv; 181 observed model trades; 255 candidate dates. Coverage dispositions: {"COMPLETE_136":235,"INCOMPLETE_OR_MISSING":20}.
Source SHA256: b430f86c67c83b7770bf5b24f35891f87986ed008de2867ea81d73c7a47d8fc2
Bundle schema: fm300.hypothetical-risk-illustration.v1; as of 2026-10-06. Bundle SHA256: ad04337b672277fa519af5b0302f4c2591c4b4f593c5df6a46c3c60041938631.
- No live execution evidence.
- Annual source is NinjaTrader NQ Last ticks with attached L1 quotes and one-minute research execution, not Level 3.
- April 1–24 source gap and additional strategy-specific exclusions.
- OF uses stitched normalization history; production is exact-expiry gated. Current released package parity not established.
- Fees are modeled 6t base/12t stress, not a broker bill; fixed software/data subscriptions, taxes, financing, withdrawals and deposits excluded.
- Future drift, missing-period outcomes, gap losses beyond the historical sample, brokerage margin and liquidity capacity are not estimated. Integer sizing is modeled only in the whole-contract mode.
- Neither source may be called the best live strategy from this calculation.
- Whole MNQ sizing uses NQ reference-price outcomes scaled to $0.50/tick. It does not verify MNQ fills or brokerage buying power.
- Whole-contract size is rounded down. Trades that do not fit the current risk budget are skipped. There is no invented minimum one-contract trade.
- No broker margin, leverage, position-size/capacity limit, fixed subscription/data costs, tax or withdrawals are modeled.
- The fractional mode can use less than one contract and is theoretical; it cannot be executed as shown.
- ORB and Order Flow are separate examples. Their dollars must not be added as if this were a jointly risk-controlled portfolio.
- Historical source winning percentages are descriptive; the future assumption repeats losses as well as gains.
Hypothetical results have inherent limitations: they do not represent actual trading and cannot account fully for financial risk or how traders withstand losses. Past modeled outcomes do not guarantee future results. CFTC trading-system caution · CME MNQ contract specifications.